The bright spot among disastrous November retail sales report

By on December 22, 2021 0

Christmas is just a few days away, signaling that we are now halfway through a strong seasonal month for the stock market.

Source: jayk67 /

According to the people of Bespoke, the S&P 500 has posted gains every December since 1983 and this year is no exception. The S&P started the month up about 23%. It typically recovers an average of 2.25% in December when the index is up more than 10% in the first 11 months of the year.

December got off to a rocky start as investors were hit by disappointing economic data. Namely, Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producer Price Index (PPI) and November Retail Sales Reports. The Labor Department recently announced that the CPI rose 0.8% in November, which was slightly higher than economists’ consensus estimate of a 0.7% increase.

The PPI jumped 0.8% in November, the largest increase in the past four months. Wholesale food prices rose 1.2% in November and energy prices rose 2.6%. Excluding food, energy and trade margins, the core PPI rose 0.7% in November, demonstrating that wholesale inflation is no longer solely linked to rising food and energy prices. .

The November retail sales report was, for lack of a better word, catastrophic. The Commerce Department said retail sales rose only 0.3% in November, significantly lower than economists’ consensus estimate of an increase of 0.8%. Excluding gasoline station sales, retail sales rose only 0.10%.

Sales at gasoline stations rose 1.7%, restaurant and bar sales by 1% and grocery store sales by 0.9%. Rising living costs, with gasoline prices up nearly 60% and food prices up about 6%, are pushing consumers to spend less.

But there were bright spots. Despite supply chain issues and fears of a new variant of COVID-19, stores have seen 48% more foot traffic this year, according to Sensormatic Solutions. While that number still represents a 28% drop from the 2019 pre-pandemic wave of vacation buyers, it shows people are feeling more comfortable leaving their homes.

And online sales were surprisingly unchanged. Ecommerce sales were only slightly lower than in the 2020s on Black Friday and Thanksgiving, with shoppers spending $ 8.9 billion and $ 5.1 billion, respectively. Cyber ​​Monday shoppers spent a total of $ 10.7 billion, according to Adobe Analytics.

The $ 109.8 billion spent on e-commerce from Nov.1 to Nov.29 increased 11.9% year-over-year, marking another milestone in the United States, according to Adobe.

So what do all these numbers tell us? Inflation is going nowhere and consumers are spending more money at the pumps.

This is the bad news.

The good news is that in a roaring inflationary environment, residential real estate and stocks remain the best way to protect an investor from inflation, so stocks should remain an oasis for investors.

If you are right quality companies, then your portfolio is well positioned to achieve windfall profits in 2022.

And over the past three months, Eric Fry, Luke Lango and I have been riding our stock market playbook to help you find these high quality businesses (one of which is a specialty retailer that continues to forecast strong profit and sales growth). This research resulted in the event of the year: the Early Warning Summit 2022.

We believe we are on the cusp of one of the biggest stock market booms in US history and now is a great time to ‘lock in and load’ for the New Year.

Our Energy portfolio 2022 is our exclusive guide to positioning your portfolio to take advantage of all that next year has to offer investors. We have selected nine stocks that are expected to crush the market in 2022.

So Click here to find out what Eric, Luke and I see as biggest and best profit opportunities for 2022.


Louis Navellier

The Publisher hereby discloses that as of the date of this email, the Publisher owns, directly or indirectly, the following titles which are the subject of commentary, analysis, opinions, advice or recommendations in, or otherwise mentioned in, the essay presented below:

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